At Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins faced another setback, squandering a three-run lead to fall 4-3 against the Cleveland Guardians. This defeat spotlights a troubling trend for the Twins, who have dropped 18 out of their last 27 games.
The pivotal moment came in the bottom of the eighth inning when Griffin Jax gave up a game-winning two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo. This loss chipped away at the Twins' lead for the third AL wild-card spot, which now stands at a precarious 1.5 games. Once enjoying a robust postseason probability of 95.4% as of September 5, the Twins' odds have now withered to 76.4%, according to FanGraphs.
The Struggles at the Plate
In 12 of their last 27 games, the Twins have failed to score more than three runs. During this span, they are batting a mere .236 with a .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage. They are particularly vulnerable when the bases are empty, hitting just .272, ranking them fourth worst in this scenario.
Manager Rocco Baldelli acknowledged the team’s offensive struggles. "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together," he emphasized.
Pitching Woes
Compounding their offensive issues, the bullpen has faltered dramatically. Over the first 123 games, the bullpen boasted a 3.84 ERA, ranking tenth in win probability added at plus-3.41. However, in the recent 27-game stretch, these numbers have taken a nosedive to a 5.47 ERA with a league-worst minus-2.75 win probability added.
"It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff," lamented reliever Griffin Jax, encapsulating the sense of urgency felt within the pitching staff.
Rotation and Bullpen Fatigue
The bullpen's fatigue is echoed throughout the rotation. The rest of the rotation has posted a troubling 6.07 ERA during the last 27 games, averaging just 4.38 innings per start. This lack of depth and durability has often left the bullpen in high-leverage situations late in games. The Twins held the lead in the seventh inning or later in five of their last 18 losses and were tied on two other occasions.
"Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking,” said pitcher Pablo López. “Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow."
Key Players and Reinforcements
The recent return of Max Kepler could provide a spark, and newly acquired lefty Cole Irvin from the Baltimore Orioles might bolster a weary rotation. Derek Falvey explained the strategic move, "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help." Irvin has recorded a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances so far.
Meanwhile, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have shown signs of life, combining for 5 hits in 15 at-bats with two doubles and a homer this month. If they can sustain this form, it would considerably boost the Twins' chances of holding onto their postseason spot.
A Grueling Schedule
The Twins' grueling schedule hasn't done them any favors either, having played 17 games in the last 18 days. This relentless pace has taken a toll on both their physical and mental stamina. "We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this," admitted Baldelli, reflecting the need for the team to regroup and recalibrate quickly.
The Road Ahead
With the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners only two games behind in the standings, the stakes couldn't be higher. The Twins do hold crucial tiebreakers over both teams, but they must capitalize on these advantages to secure their postseason aspirations. The Tigers, in particular, have been in formidable form, going 23-10 in their last 33 games.
The pressure is palpable as the Twins approach the final stretch of the regular season. Every game, inning, and pitch will be critical as they strive to reverse their downward trajectory and secure a postseason berth.