The MLB landscape saw a significant shift as All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes finds himself on the move yet again.
The latest transaction involves the Chicago Cubs and the Tampa Bay Rays, who agreed on an eye-catching trade just before the July 30 trade deadline. Paredes, originally signed by the Cubs as an amateur, had stints with the Detroit Tigers and the Rays before his return to Chicago. At 25 years old, his stats speak volumes. His slash line of .237/.340/.458 (126 OPS+) with 67 home runs over 354 games places him in fine company among third basemen, right behind heavyweights like Rafael Devers, José Ramírez, Austin Riley, and Manny Machado in terms of OPS+ during the same period.
However, it's not all sunshine and roses for Paredes. According to Statcast's metrics, his average exit velocity ranks in a dismal 4th percentile. Robert Orr's database also reveals that Paredes pulls a greater share of fly balls than any other player in the majors. Compounding these challenges, Statcast estimates that had Paredes played at Wrigley Field, he would have missed out on five home runs this season and 12 for his career. Despite these statistics, the Cubs see untapped potential in him, especially considering that his contract offers team control through the 2027 season.
In a complex maneuver, the Cubs aim to amplify their batting prowess and overall team dynamics with Paredes' acquisition, addressing their offensive struggles of late. Paredes' addition comes as part of a broader strategy by the Cubs aimed at building a more resilient and formidable lineup.
The Rays' Strategy
The trade follows a broader sell-off by the Rays that started at the beginning of July. High-profile trades saw the departure of players like Randy Arozarena, Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Phil Maton, Jason Adam, and now Isaac Paredes. This wave of trades might make some fans uneasy; however, the Rays' management style remains unapologetically bold. As one insider put it, "Clearly the Powers That Be in St. Petersburg view Ron Schueler as a fearless trailblazer that never got his due."
Remarkably, even after these transactions, the Rays remain competitive, only trailing half a game in playoff positioning compared to the "White Flag Trade" executed by the 1997 Chicago White Sox, a situation that had a similar vibe but different outcomes.
Christopher Morel Joins the Rays
In exchange for Paredes, the Cubs sent Christopher Morel to Tampa Bay. At 25 years old, Morel is seen as a budding talent with a robust offensive profile. Analysts believe that "Morel strikes us as someone who is a decent bet to be an above-average hitter for at least the next few years." Morel's 90th percentile exit velocity places him in esteemed company, comparable to sluggers like Teoscar Hernández and Joc Pederson.
The Rays may find various roles for Morel, be it at second base, left field, or designated hitter. As one expert speculated, "The Rays may want to plop him down at second base (or left field, or DH) and say, 'that's that, go hit and we won't mind the defensive damage.'"
Additional Pieces
The deal also includes Bigge and Johnson. Bigge, 26, has appeared in four big-league games with the Cubs this season. Johnson, 22, comes as a recent pick from Ball State, selected in last summer’s 15th round.
This multifaceted trade leaves quite a few questions hanging. Will Paredes find his rhythm back at Wrigley Field despite the statistical drawbacks forecasted by Statcast? Can Morel develop into the consistent offensive weapon the Rays envision?
If anything, the evolving strategies of the Cubs and Rays continue to demonstrate the unpredictable yet compelling nature of Major League Baseball, where data-driven decisions merge with instinctual management. As these two historic franchises make their moves, fans and analysts alike will keenly follow the outcomes that these latest trades produce.