At 7:10 PM ET, Progressive Field will host an intriguing interleague matchup between the San Diego Padres and the Cleveland Guardians. Both teams find themselves in different positions within their respective divisions, setting the stage for a competitive clash.
The Cleveland Guardians, leading the AL Central with a solid record of 58-37, enter the game as money line favorites at -139. In contrast, the San Diego Padres, holding a record of 50-49 and standing third in the NL West, face the challenge as slight underdogs with a money line of +118. The Padres are currently seven games behind the Dodgers in their division, making this matchup critical for their hopes to climb back into contention.
Pitcher's Duel
For the Padres, Matt Waldron will take the mound. This season, Waldron has been a reliable presence, starting 19 games and recording a 5-8 record with a 3.71 ERA. Notably, opponents have batted just .225 against him, underscoring his ability to manage batters effectively. Waldron's WHIP stands at an impressive 1.17, indicative of his control on the mound. However, he will be looking to bounce back from a challenging last outing on July 12th, where he gave up four earned runs.
Opposing Waldron will be Tanner Bibee for the Guardians. Bibee’s season mirrors Waldron’s in terms of starts, having also started 19 games. With a 7-4 record, a 3.77 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.12, Bibee has been a critical component of the Guardians' rotation. His ability to generate strikeouts is notable, amassing an average of 10.54 strikeouts per nine innings and totaling 123 strikeouts this season. Despite giving up four earned runs in his last outing against the Tigers, Bibee had won two consecutive starts before that, showcasing his potential to dominate games.
Team Dynamics
The Padres are coming off a 6-3 loss to the Atlanta Braves, where Randy Vasquez started and took the loss after allowing four runs on four hits over five innings. The bullpen struggled as well, giving up an additional two runs in the eighth inning. Currently, the Padres have a road record of 24-21 and an overall divisional record of 15-17. Notably, they have lost two of their last three games against the Braves and have additionally dropped their last two games as underdogs, contributing to an overall record of 21-20 as underdogs.
On the Guardians' side, the recent performance at home has been less than stellar, with a 1-4 record in their last five home games. Over their previous ten games, the Guardians have managed only a 4-6 record, including a series against the Rays that concluded with a 2-0 loss. Pitcher Ben Lively had a mixed outing in their last game against the Rays, striking out the side in the first inning but allowing two runs in the third.
Offensive Spotlight
For the Guardians, offense has been highlighted by the standout performances of José Ramírez and Josh Naylor. Ramírez is second in the league with 77 RBIs, while Naylor has contributed significantly with 70 RBIs. Ramírez also boasts 23 home runs and is batting .271 for the season. As a team, the Guardians average 4.8 runs per game, with a .243 batting average, ranking them 11th in MLB for batting average and 10th in home runs.
Similarly, the Padres have key offensive players who have stepped up. Jurickson Profar and Fernando Tatis Jr. are tied for the team lead with 14 home runs each. Profar, in particular, has been productive with 59 RBIs and a recent hot streak, going 7/22 in his last seven games. Additionally, Manny Machado enters this game on a three-game hitting streak, though his batting average over the past week has been a more tempered .231.
Game Expectations
The over/under line for this game is set at 7.5 runs, taking into consideration that Cleveland games average 8.7 runs, while Padres games average 8.9 runs per game. So far this season, 58.6% of Padres games have gone over the line, compared to 66.3% of Guardians games. This hints at the potential for a higher-scoring game despite the probable pitching duel.
Predictions suggest that the Guardians might edge out the Padres with a 6-5 victory and both teams are expected to tally nine hits each. Tanner Bibee is projected to finish the game with six strikeouts, while Matt Waldron is anticipated to record five strikeouts, with Bibee yielding fewer earned runs.