The New York Giants have made a strategic decision not to franchise running back Saquon Barkley for the second consecutive year. This significant move marks a departure from the earlier stance that appeared to low-ball Barkley with an offer deemed disrespectful by the management. Despite the clear preference of team owner John Mara to retain Barkley, financial considerations and positional priorities dictated the outcome.
The Giants' general manager Joe Schoen emphasized a measured approach, opting to delay the acquisition of a running back until the second week of free agency. This was aimed at navigating a competitive market and securing better value. Schoen asserted the importance of getting the "bang for your buck," leveraging data-driven insights to justify the decision.
Age-Related Performance Trends
The decision to let Barkley walk was heavily influenced by Schoen's reliance on performance data, which shows a downward trajectory for running backs around the age of 27. Barkley, now 27, has already amassed 900 carries during his tenure at Penn State and has endured six physically demanding seasons in the NFL. It's a trend that Schoen is acutely aware of, stating, "The data says that running backs decline at 27." Historical patterns support this, with many running backs often experiencing a dip in productivity around this age.
Christian McCaffrey, another prominent running back, saw his age-27 season unfold in 2023, serving as a contemporary reference for this trend. Contrasts exist, however, with players like Frank Gore excelling well into their 30s and Aaron Jones improving after 27. Yet, others like Derrick Henry have shown a decline in yards per carry despite maintaining impressive overall yardage per game. Schoen’s strategy hinges on these insights, aiming to avoid the pitfalls of offering large contracts to aging running backs.
Barkley’s New Chapter with the Eagles
As the Giants anticipated, Barkley did not command an exorbitant salary in the free-agent market. The Philadelphia Eagles capitalized on this, securing Barkley with a deal worth $12.5 million per season over three years. This acquisition marks a significant milestone in Barkley’s career, providing him a fresh start with a new team while affirming the Giants’ tactical choice.
This approach reflects broader trends within the NFL, where teams are increasingly hesitant to invest heavily in running backs approaching or surpassing the 27-year threshold. Management teams prefer to allocate financial resources strategically, ensuring longevity and value across the roster.
While Barkley’s departure is undoubtedly a calculated risk for the Giants, it underscores a shifting paradigm in how NFL franchises value and manage their player rosters, particularly at the running back position.
It remains to be seen how this decision will play out on the field for both the Giants and Barkley. Will the Giants’ data-driven strategy yield the expected benefits, or will Barkley defy the age-related decline and thrive in Philadelphia? As the new season unfolds, fans and analysts alike will be watching closely.